Our writers share their predictions for the 2025 season

After a busy build-up to the new campaign – featuring the spectacular F1 75 Live event followed by three days of testing in Bahrain – the 2025 season is officially upon us, with the Australian Grand Prix set to kick off a 24-race calendar this weekend. Before the action gets underway, we asked our writers Lawrence Barretto, James Hinchcliffe, Chris Medland and David Tremayne to share their predictions for the season ahead, ranging from who will come out on top through to the star rookie and the biggest surprise…

Who will be the top three drivers in 2025?

Lawrence Barretto (F1 Correspondent & Presenter): This is going to be Lando Norris’ year, the McLaren racer holding off a stern fight from Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen to win his first F1 drivers’ title. That’ll be the top three, in that order.

James Hinchcliffe (IndyCar Race Winner and Analyst): The top three drivers in 2025 will have a similar look to last year, I think. Even though Mclaren look like they will be strongest out of the gate, Verstappen sounds more bullish on the RB21 than its predecessor, and Norris will face a stronger challenge from Oscar Piastri as the Australian continues to improve. That means they will be taking points off each other more often than Liam Lawson will off Verstappen, which is why I think it's going to be Verstappen, Norris, Piastri.

Chris Medland (Special Contributor): I’m going to go with Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and George Russell. The first two are pretty simple picks given how last year played out, the form McLaren is in and the dynamic at Red Bull, but Mercedes seemed confident in their progress over the winter and Russell showed he’s really up for a fight at the front towards the end of last year.

David Tremayne (Hall of Fame F1 Journalist): Lewis Hamilton; Oscar Piastri; and Lando Norris. In that order...

BAHRAIN, BAHRAIN - FEBRUARY 27: Max Verstappen of the Netherlands and Oracle Red Bull Racing and — Will Verstappen and Norris again go head-to-head in 2025?

Which will be the top three teams in 2025?

LB: I expect McLaren to start the season strongly and not let up to successfully defend their Teams’ Championship. Ferrari will be close in P2, with Red Bull completing the podium.

JH: Mclaren had great momentum going into the off season, and the pre-season testing – as subjective as that can be – still makes them look like the team to beat. With Piastri getting better every year, I think they take the title. Red Bull are going to suffer slightly from the inexperience of Lawson, so I think they will end up third again, and Ferrari, with a quick car and two phenomenal drivers, will split the two British squads.

CM: McLaren are an easy choice here, but the rest is tough! I can see Verstappen being a real title challenger even if Red Bull aren’t right up there all the time, but can also see Mercedes being ahead of Ferrari on early pace while Ferrari have more consistent results from both drivers over the year… I’ll go McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes, and almost guarantee I’m wrong with at least one of these first two sections!

DT: McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull/Mercedes. Yes, that’s four not three. I’m expecting the leading quartet to be very difficult to separate over the course of the 24 race meetings.

Ultimate Guide: Everything you need to know ahead of the 2025 F1 season

What will be the biggest surprise of the season?

LB: Williams will be at the sharp end of the midfield at the start of the season, having finished P9 last year, but they’ll face a battle to stay there as they switch their attention to the new-for-2026 rules early doors.

JH: The biggest surprise of 2025 will be the fall of Aston Martin in the Teams’ battle. After two years in purgatory between the top four and bottom five teams, Aston will find themselves under big threat from the rest of the midfield challengers. Big improvements from Haas, Williams and Alpine will close that gap, and with the feeling being that motivation for 2026 is going to overshadow efforts in 2025, it's feasible they could find themselves as far back as eighth by the year’s end.

CM: The number of teams that will score podium finishes. I’m predicting at least six of the 10, and maybe seven. I still think there will be a clear top four, but with all the changes in drivers across the grid, and such close competition for a number of positions, I just think there will be more chances for those outside the quartet of McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull than last year.

DT: Kimi Antonelli being quick won’t be a surprise, so we can discount that eventuality here. Likewise, Lewis rediscovering his mojo in a car whose handling he likes. It won’t surprise me if Haas look good, either. I’m half expecting that. So I’m going to opt for Carlos Sainz’s pace in the Williams. He was always quick in a Ferrari in the last couple of seasons, and boy does he have something to prove to everyone… Underestimate him at your peril…

BAHRAIN, BAHRAIN - FEBRUARY 27: Carlos Sainz of Spain driving the (55) Williams FW47 Mercedes on — Can Williams cause a surprise in the season ahead?

Which of the rookies will impress the most?

LB: It’s a tough one between Kimi Antonelli and Ollie Bearman – (N.B I’m not counting Liam Lawson as a rookie as he’s got 11 Grands Prix under his belt, across two seasons!) but I think Antonelli will edge it.

JH: This answer is a little biased, because we got a sneak peek at his abilities last season, but I think Ollie Bearman is set to really impress the paddock this year. The way he conducted himself against Nico Hulkenberg was mighty impressive from the teenager, and this new-and-improved Haas – complete with Toyota funding and technical resources – is set to step up their game. If Bearman keeps the same approach and sensibilities about him in his first full season, it could really set him up for big things in the future.

CM: I want to say Gabriel Bortoleto, but I fear he won’t have the machinery to really show his ability this year, so I think it will be Ollie Bearman. It’s a slightly safer bet given what he displayed during his three substitute appearances last year, but I think he’ll do really well at Haas once the team have hit their stride from a trackside perspective. I’m expecting big things from most of them, though. It’s a really exciting year from that aspect.

DT: Kimi Antonelli. I think Liam Lawson will show respectable pace against Max and will learn so much, because of the way he goes about his racing and the amount of effort he puts in. I also expect Ollie Bearman to be strong at Haas alongside Esteban Ocon, based on what he did with Ferrari and Haas in three races last year. But for sheer excitement, speed and competitiveness, my money’s on Kimi, a most impressive 18-year-old on and off the track.

How the 2025 season rookies fared during Bahrain testing

One bold prediction for 2025…

LB: At least two full-time rookies will bring back silverware for their respective mantlepieces after finding their way to the podium.

JH: It's not often you see rookies on podiums in Formula 1, and I don't think that Mercedes are going to have the best car, but I have a firm belief that Kimi Antonelli will hoist a trophy in 2025. His inexperience will no doubt bite him at certain points in the year. That is to be expected. But his raw ability is undeniable, and on the days where he makes no mistakes – on tracks where the Mercedes is competitive – he will be in the mix at the front.

CM: Carlos Sainz will pick up some form of trophy. It might be in a Sprint or a crazy race, and I’m not saying Williams will be regular podium threats, but that there will just be one weekend out of 24 when the opportunity comes up. Pushed on by such a strong driver pairing – compared to a lot of rookies at rival teams who will be learning – I just wonder if Williams could have a few high points during the year.

DT: If the Mercedes is good enough, I think Kimi might just squeak a victory before the season is out, especially if it rains somewhere. Remember his driving in Silverstone’s British Grand Prix F2 support race last year, when he lost an eight-second lead through a Virtual Safety Car intervention, then clawed it all back in no time when the race went green again…